Q4 2025: Did Congress Beat the S&P 500?
Q4 2025 Scoreboard
| Metric | Return |
|---|---|
| Congressional Aggregate | +6.8% |
| S&P 500 | +4.2% |
| Congressional Alpha | +2.6% |
Key Findings
According to Seentio's analysis, the aggregate portfolio of active congressional traders returned approximately 6.8% in Q4 2025, outperforming the S&P 500's 4.2% return by 2.6 percentage points. The NASDAQ Composite returned 5.1% over the same period, meaning congressional traders also outperformed the tech-heavy index by 1.7 points.
The outperformance was driven by two factors: (1) an overweight position in technology stocks, which returned 8.3% in Q4 2025 vs. the S&P 500's 4.2%, and (2) concentrated positions in energy stocks that benefited from rising oil prices, particularly among members of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee.
However, congressional performance was not uniform across all members. The top 10% of traders by return significantly outperformed, while the bottom 10% underperformed the S&P 500 by an average of 3.1 percentage points. This suggests that "congressional alpha" is concentrated among a small number of active, well-positioned traders rather than being a systemic advantage shared by all members.
Historical Quarterly Performance
| Quarter | Congress | S&P 500 | Alpha | Beat? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | +6.8% | +4.2% | +2.6% | Yes |
| Q3 2025 | +3.1% | +3.7% | -0.6% | No |
| Q2 2025 | +5.4% | +4.0% | +1.4% | Yes |
| Q1 2025 | +7.2% | +5.5% | +1.7% | Yes |
| Q4 2024 | +2.8% | +3.2% | -0.4% | No |
| Q3 2024 | +4.9% | +3.8% | +1.1% | Yes |
Source: Seentio analysis of SEC EFTS filings. Congressional returns estimated from disclosed transaction ranges.
Methodology
Congressional performance is estimated by constructing an aggregate portfolio from all disclosed purchase transactions during the quarter. Each position is weighted by the midpoint of the STOCK Act amount range (e.g., "$100,001 - $250,000" is weighted at $175,000). The portfolio is rebalanced at each disclosure date. Returns are calculated as the total return of this aggregate portfolio from the start to end of the quarter.
"Congressional alpha" is the difference between this estimated congressional return and the S&P 500 total return over the same period. This is an approximation — the STOCK Act requires disclosure of amount ranges, not exact dollar values, and there is a 45-day disclosure delay that introduces noise.